Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.338857 0.385305 0.435733 0.494545 0.561251 0.634567 0.721270
2025-09-21 0.267360 0.328270 0.399527 0.489030 0.598466 0.727963 0.892931
2025-09-28 0.214070 0.281674 0.366261 0.479849 0.628444 0.816343 1.072261
2025-10-05 0.183745 0.257633 0.355964 0.496358 0.691757 0.954324 1.334523
2025-10-12 0.154493 0.229776 0.335863 0.496194 0.732526 1.068484 1.583340
2025-10-19 0.133102 0.209123 0.322100 0.502111 0.781985 1.201174 1.878302
2025-10-26 0.117627 0.194512 0.314580 0.515554 0.843937 1.360290 2.236270
2025-11-02 0.098865 0.171542 0.290448 0.498910 0.855791 1.443152 2.486488
2025-11-09 0.082153 0.149155 0.263690 0.473442 0.848650 1.493256 2.688907
2025-11-16 0.070960 0.134460 0.247592 0.463468 0.865940 1.585900 2.976851
2025-11-23 0.061448 0.121257 0.232070 0.451930 0.878216 1.670532 3.261500
2025-11-30 0.056174 0.115192 0.228677 0.462310 0.932429 1.838443 3.725385
2025-12-07 0.048204 0.102825 0.211935 0.445235 0.932894 1.908253 4.017097
2025-12-14 0.042510 0.094209 0.201357 0.439018 0.954415 2.022909 4.418229
2025-12-21 0.037365 0.085926 0.190225 0.429919 0.968561 2.124655 4.808607
2025-12-28 0.034811 0.082933 0.189870 0.444105 1.035185 2.346542 5.494344
2026-01-04 0.031448 0.077538 0.183408 0.443531 1.068594 2.500627 6.051320
2026-01-11 0.028863 0.073568 0.179593 0.448523 1.115685 2.692334 6.725874
2026-01-18 0.026972 0.070991 0.178667 0.460323 1.180925 2.935684 7.562683
2026-01-25 0.023804 0.064654 0.167652 0.445309 1.177430 3.013279 7.999390
2026-02-01 0.020649 0.057834 0.154398 0.422470 1.150401 3.028633 8.278971
2026-02-08 0.018533 0.053473 0.146836 0.413499 1.158499 3.134627 8.814758
2026-02-15 0.016606 0.049320 0.139206 0.403155 1.161294 3.227128 9.328523